If you want to survive in the game of sports betting, Best Bet Prediction in Recommended then you have to use effective money management. I recommend that you follow these guidelines at all times.
- Only invest what you can realistically afford to lose. How To Bet On Football you have to remember that you really do not need to start with al a lot of money. I got started with only $100 dollars and I followed the system and my money has doubled over and over again over the course of years.
- Do not make your initial bet too high. Only invest 5% of your total bankroll for a flat betting system (in which you bet the same amount each time) and no more than 2% for a progressive system. You need to be patient here and allow your systems to do their slow and steady work.
- Increase your initial bets when your bankroll has increased by 25%. This will increase your earning power, Best Bet Prediction just remember to stick to the suggested percentages in #2.
- Remember to Diversify your portfolio. If you have a total bankroll of $1000 and 4 systems that you would like to use, then each system should be allotted $250 and you have to keep those amounts separate.
You have to be disciplined in your use of your systems and in your money management strategy. It can be difficult especially you are doing exceptionally well or if you are losing badly. You may be tempted to deviate from the systems or the money management guidelines in either of those situations. But do not, Football Betting just remain diligent and the rewards are sure to follow.
Best Bet Prediction in Recommended?
This is the third instalment in a series of articles on profitable betting through sensible money management. So far, I have discussed the importance of getting value when you bet, to maximise the returns you achieve when your selections win. In the most recent article you should have learned to keep your stakes in proportion to the size of your betting bank.
Today I want to examine a common mistake that often gets punters into serious trouble – chasing your losses.
I don’t think there can be many of us who have not at some time, decided to get back what we just lost by betting a little bigger on the next race. It is sometimes known as progressive staking.
Let’s take a simple scenario: you bet £10 on Red Rum, and he loses. What do you do? Perhaps you continue with your selection methods and come up with another pick in the next race – Best Mate. The price is 6/4F
But, rather than putting another £10 bet on Best Mate, you decide to ‘chase’ your loss from the last race. You add another £7 to your stake so that when Best Mate wins you will pick up an extra £10.50 to recover the bet you lost on Red Rum. Good plan? Could be, after all Best Mate is a sure fire winner, right? May be. May be not!
What happens if Best Mate loses? You are now £27 ‘in the hole’. But you still have a plan. Your next selection is a dead cert winner at Even money. You place your usual £10 stake plus an extra £27 to cover your losses so far. No need to worry. When this one comes in, you will have re-couped your losses and have a £10 profit to show as well.
Let’s take a step back here. You are staking £37 to win a £10 profit. Think about it – you are effectively getting odds of only around 1 to 4 odds-on about a horse that is Even money in the market. That is terrible value!
You may escape this time and your horse may well win. But what if, heaven forbid, your red-hot even money favourite fails to win? After just three bets, you are down to the tune of £64 when your normal stake is just a tenner!
Long losing runs do occur, more frequently than you might think, and even with short-priced selections.
If you spent a day in a casino at the roulette tables, and analysed how many times you witnessed a run of 7 or 8 consecutive ‘red’ numbers, I would not be at all surprised if you saw this happen four or five times – in a single day. Here we have pretty much a 50/50 bet, even money, that the roulette ball will land in either a red or a black slot. Yet I was amazed to learn that the longest run of the same colour (reported) was THIRTY-NINE consecutive reds!!
Imagine if you were betting on black, and saying to yourself each time “no worries, it’s got to be black next time…. Surely?”
But let’s go back to the more common occurrence of a losing run of 7 even money bets. We will be betting on the red.
We place a £1 bet on the first spin. It’s black. We chase our loss by ‘doubling up’ and next bet £2. If we were to carry on in this manner, after 6 spins we would be betting £64 to win our original £1
I sincerely hope my point is getting across. By chasing your losses you can very quickly see your stakes climbing to preposterous levels, to win your original, relatively small stake. The risk is way out of proportion compared to the potential reward.
One last example to really ram the point home. The Racing Post runs a tipster competition. All the leading racing journalists are involved, representing the nation’s newspapers and horse racing publications. These are experts at tipping horses. Take a look at the results table any day, and see for yourself the longest losing run. Remember, these are the experts.
I looked today, and Racing Post PostData has suffered this season a losing run of twenty-seven. Twenty-seven consecutive losers from an expert tipster! And believe me, he is not on his own, just the worst offender this season so far.
There is an old saying – “Don’t throw good money after bad”. If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, don’t try and make them profitable by throwing more money at them. You may survive with a profit for a while, but this approach is a disaster waiting to happen. Sooner or later you WILL blow your entire bank chasing a disproportionately small profit.
If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, change your system.
Betting Exchanges and Lay Betting - An IntroductionIntroduction
In article one, I introduced you to the Betting Exchange concept and explained the basics of LAY Betting (Lay to Lose). Now in this article, I'm going to introduce you to another unique and powerful feature of the betting exchanges, the Place Markets.
What Are Betting Exchange Place Markets?
Place markets are as the name suggests, markets which allow you to bet on a selection to be 'placed'. Eg. a horse to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a 8 runner or larger field.
Now, the first and most important thing to highlight here is that these place markets are completely different to the well known Each Way (EW) betting markets offered by traditional bookmakers. The Each Way bet is in fact 2 bets of equal stakes.
The 1st stake is on the selection to win and the 2nd is on it to be placed. So a £10 EW bet will cost you £20 in total.
A £10 place bet on a Betting Exchange is a single bet and therefore will only cost you £10. If your selection finishes in a place, you collect your winnings and smile.
Think about it for a minute. How many times have you been certain that a horse will be placed, but you have not been confident that it will win...
Traditional Each Way Betting
Take the following example. A horse named 'Im gonna be placed' that is available to back with traditional bookmakers at 4/1 (5.0). Your very confident that it will finish in the top 3 in a 10 runner field.
With a traditional bookmaker, your options are:
1) Take a chance on it winning and place a win single on it. E.g. £10 at 4/1
2) Place an EW bet on it. E.g. £10 EW at 4/1 (5.0). Total stakes £20. The bookies will pay you 1/5 odds on the place element of this E/W bet based on their standard EW rules. On our horse which is available to back at 5.0 this equates to 1.8
Now, the only time the above race will be profitable for you is if the horse actually wins. In both cases you would make a very nice profit if it did. For option 1 you would win £40 profit and for option 2, £48 profit.
BUT, if as you suspected the horse only finishes placed in 2nd or 3rd, you actually lose money in both cases. With option 1 you obviously lose all your stake money so are down £10. With option 2, you win £8 on the Place side of the EW bet but still lose £2 overall as the win part of the bet was a losing one.
Enter The Betting Exchange Place Markets
Using the above example and depending upon the prices of the other horses in the race, you would probably see the Betting Exchanges offering odds of around 1.60 - 2.00 (evens) on this horse being placed. You can therefore put your £10 PLACE bet on at say 1.8 and collect £8 profit (minus commission) as long as the horse finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Only if the horse finishes outside of the top 3 do you lose your £10 stake.
I'm sure this has got you thinking and you can probably see the power in this straight away!
When combined with a good staking plan and a sensible selection process, it can be common to have very long winning streaks when backing horses to be placed on the betting exchanges. These longer winning streaks more than make up for the relatively short prices that are offered on selections to be placed.
Place Market Important Notes
A few important things to note about place markets:
1) Unlike the betting exchange win markets, Place markets DO NOT go "In-Running" when the race starts but this is true of the traditional E/W bets offered by bookies as well.
2) If a race is planned as a 8 runner or more event but a number of horses become non-runners leaving less than 8 runners, the betting exchanges still offer odds on 3 places. This is different to bookmakers who in such cases adjust their odds on the place payment from 1/5 to 1/4 of the win odds BUT they only pay out on 2 places. If a 5,6 or 7 runner field is shortened to less than 5 runners, the betting exchanges will still offer place markets and payout if the horse finishes 1st or 2nd.
3) You can make up the equivalent of an E/W bet on the betting exchanges by placing a bet on the win market and a separate bet on the place market. Depending upon the type of race and the form of the market, you will often find that this offers more value in terms of odds than an E/W bet with a bookmaker.
Backing Or Laying On The Place Markets
As explained in article 1, the ability to Lay a selection is perhaps the most important feature of the betting exchanges. You now have the ability to Lay selections to be placed. In other words, if you have a valid reason to believe that a selection will not even finish in a place, Lay it to Lose on a betting exchange. The real beauty of laying on the place markets, is that the odds are always much lower than the outright win odds so your lay liabilities are much lower.
Trading On The Place Markets
As the place market prices are much lower than the outright win market prices, they also offer a great place to learn the skill of TRADING without much risk to your balance! Betting Exchange trading is simply the process of betting on price movements for guaranteed profits. E.g. Back a horse at 4.0 and then Lay it later at 3.0 for a no risk bet or guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome!
Betting exchange trading will be covered in detail in a future betting article.
Place markets should be used as part of your betting armory. They offer you the chance to make money frequently with long winning streaks being very common. This helps to build your confidence as well as your betting bank!
Bookie Each Way bets are not always poor bets but in the vast majority of races, the odds are stacked firmly in the favour of the bookmakers. They simply love punters taking EW bets on these races as they know its their bread and butter. A small proportion of races where the market is formed in a certain way do offer the punter very good E/W value but that's for a different day...
Well that's it for part 2 of my betting exchange articles. In part 3, I will be explaining the Betting Exchange In-Running markets.