If you want to survive in the game of sports betting, Best Sports Bets This Weekend in Guide then you have to use effective money management. I recommend that you follow these guidelines at all times.
- Only invest what you can realistically afford to lose. Football Betting Strategy you have to remember that you really do not need to start with al a lot of money. I got started with only $100 dollars and I followed the system and my money has doubled over and over again over the course of years.
- Do not make your initial bet too high. Only invest 5% of your total bankroll for a flat betting system (in which you bet the same amount each time) and no more than 2% for a progressive system. You need to be patient here and allow your systems to do their slow and steady work.
- Increase your initial bets when your bankroll has increased by 25%. This will increase your earning power, Best Sports Bets This Weekend just remember to stick to the suggested percentages in #2.
- Remember to Diversify your portfolio. If you have a total bankroll of $1000 and 4 systems that you would like to use, then each system should be allotted $250 and you have to keep those amounts separate.
You have to be disciplined in your use of your systems and in your money management strategy. It can be difficult especially you are doing exceptionally well or if you are losing badly. You may be tempted to deviate from the systems or the money management guidelines in either of those situations. But do not, Free Football Betting Prediction Sites just remain diligent and the rewards are sure to follow.
Best Sports Bets This Weekend in Guide?
This is the third instalment in a series of articles on profitable betting through sensible money management. So far, I have discussed the importance of getting value when you bet, to maximise the returns you achieve when your selections win. In the most recent article you should have learned to keep your stakes in proportion to the size of your betting bank.
Today I want to examine a common mistake that often gets punters into serious trouble – chasing your losses.
I don’t think there can be many of us who have not at some time, decided to get back what we just lost by betting a little bigger on the next race. It is sometimes known as progressive staking.
Let’s take a simple scenario: you bet £10 on Red Rum, and he loses. What do you do? Perhaps you continue with your selection methods and come up with another pick in the next race – Best Mate. The price is 6/4F
But, rather than putting another £10 bet on Best Mate, you decide to ‘chase’ your loss from the last race. You add another £7 to your stake so that when Best Mate wins you will pick up an extra £10.50 to recover the bet you lost on Red Rum. Good plan? Could be, after all Best Mate is a sure fire winner, right? May be. May be not!
What happens if Best Mate loses? You are now £27 ‘in the hole’. But you still have a plan. Your next selection is a dead cert winner at Even money. You place your usual £10 stake plus an extra £27 to cover your losses so far. No need to worry. When this one comes in, you will have re-couped your losses and have a £10 profit to show as well.
Let’s take a step back here. You are staking £37 to win a £10 profit. Think about it – you are effectively getting odds of only around 1 to 4 odds-on about a horse that is Even money in the market. That is terrible value!
You may escape this time and your horse may well win. But what if, heaven forbid, your red-hot even money favourite fails to win? After just three bets, you are down to the tune of £64 when your normal stake is just a tenner!
Long losing runs do occur, more frequently than you might think, and even with short-priced selections.
If you spent a day in a casino at the roulette tables, and analysed how many times you witnessed a run of 7 or 8 consecutive ‘red’ numbers, I would not be at all surprised if you saw this happen four or five times – in a single day. Here we have pretty much a 50/50 bet, even money, that the roulette ball will land in either a red or a black slot. Yet I was amazed to learn that the longest run of the same colour (reported) was THIRTY-NINE consecutive reds!!
Imagine if you were betting on black, and saying to yourself each time “no worries, it’s got to be black next time…. Surely?”
But let’s go back to the more common occurrence of a losing run of 7 even money bets. We will be betting on the red.
We place a £1 bet on the first spin. It’s black. We chase our loss by ‘doubling up’ and next bet £2. If we were to carry on in this manner, after 6 spins we would be betting £64 to win our original £1
I sincerely hope my point is getting across. By chasing your losses you can very quickly see your stakes climbing to preposterous levels, to win your original, relatively small stake. The risk is way out of proportion compared to the potential reward.
One last example to really ram the point home. The Racing Post runs a tipster competition. All the leading racing journalists are involved, representing the nation’s newspapers and horse racing publications. These are experts at tipping horses. Take a look at the results table any day, and see for yourself the longest losing run. Remember, these are the experts.
I looked today, and Racing Post PostData has suffered this season a losing run of twenty-seven. Twenty-seven consecutive losers from an expert tipster! And believe me, he is not on his own, just the worst offender this season so far.
There is an old saying – “Don’t throw good money after bad”. If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, don’t try and make them profitable by throwing more money at them. You may survive with a profit for a while, but this approach is a disaster waiting to happen. Sooner or later you WILL blow your entire bank chasing a disproportionately small profit.
If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, change your system.
Betting the House?
There are punters who like the 'draw' market as it pays well. One common argument among these 'draw' punters is "Are draws independent of form, that is, are they random?". There are two views :* One view is that draws are independent of previous results, that each match is different. These punters do not accept the theory that a draw is due just because it has not happened for a long time. They believe that the match outcome depends on circumstances and conditions of that particular game, for example : attacking and defending capabilities of both teams, weather on that day, pitch condition, etc.* There are opposing punters who feel strongly that the probability of draws depends on the previous games, that it boils down to the psychology and mentality of the players of the 'drawish' teams.Irrespective of whatever camp these draw specialists are in, all of them agree that draw bets are more worthwhile compared to betting Home or Away as the average odds are more attractive.In picking winning 'draws', the following factors are to be considered :1) It is essential to choose the teams instead of choosing the matches, that draw is largely due to the style of play, such as :* Defensive style and struggling to attack will tend to draw more. * Attacking formation and tactics will not draw too often.2) If a certain team draws a few matches, analyse why :* Does the team have problems scoring? If yes, why. (Is the key striker injured?)* Is the team renowned for tight defence?* Is it psychological? Maybe a team on a long losing run may try harder just to get at least a point, that is, a draw.3) The following trends in matches ending with a draw are common :* Matches where both teams are happy with a point, for example, a draw is sufficient for both to avoid relegation or to qualify for a cup competition.* Matches played in poor weather conditions like heavy rain which usually lead to less goals and higher chance for a draw.* Derby matches where a draw may satisfy both parties.* Home team in great form against Away team in strong top table position.4) Teams which draw a lot with each other repeatedly could mean :* They are equal in strength.* There is some kind of psychological impact that it is tough for one of them to break the other down.5) Do take note of the following :* If a team has been drawing a lot, and if it has appointed a new manager, wait a few matches to determine if this team is still drawing frequently.* Be cautious with newly promoted and newly relegated teams where performance can be erratic.* Teams improving in form which may be more likely to draw playing Away.ConclusionSome leagues appear to have either a higher or lower percentage of draws compared to others. This could be due to the characteristics of the leagues in terms of competitiveness, or even prevalence of match fixing. This is why some bookmakers do not offer odds on certain minor European league matches at the end of the season.